Maxamud
Muse Tarey (ayuub10@yahoo.com)
As we have
witnessed over the past 16 years, the
development of the political spectrum in
Somalia has been a constant turbulent
and ever shifting and therefore
extremely difficult to predict events
and any possible outcomes or directions.
However, if your predictions become
true, some people might consider
themselves as saint or intellectual (awliyo
amase indheergarad), conversely, the
best defendable argument must be that I
was right in this particular issue and
my opponent were wrong. What I tend to
say is the following: In my long and
much read essay titled
“Is
this the end of the warlords’ era or the
end of the Somali republic? Published
among others on this website, considered
the political reality on the ground at
that time, when UIC kicked out the most
hated and notorious warlords from
Mogadishu, I put forward some advices
for both parties with the aim of
averting a new political turmoil and
loss of lives and properties. I firmly
believe that would those advices haven’t
fallen into deaf ears, as many sacred
lives would have been saved by now and
politically the country would have been
better off. Just to refresh my honorable
readers’ memories, here are those
aforementioned suggestions:
For the
government as the central point, I
recommended them the following points.
-
To
engage in a constructive dialogue
with the Union of the Islamic
Courts.
-
Both
parties should accept all-inclusive
or power sharing government
considering the new reality on the
ground.
-
Should
do everything possible to avoid
anything that could lead to an armed
confrontation with the UIC.
-
Both
the TFG and UIC need to respect the
will and determination of the people
as they were the ones who defeated
the warlords.
-
The
both parties should be flexible and
understandable in all negotiations
and follow a solution-oriented
policy.
-
Both
parties need to understand the
disastrous consequences of a war if
they opt for confrontation.
-
Both
parties should be serious and
committed implementing their part of
the deal and understand the
exhaustion of their people and the
dangers the country is facing to.
For the sake of the national
sovereignty they are under public
scrutiny and therefore expected
political maturity, compromising,
national pride and putting the
national interest above everything
else.
For the
UIC leaders I urged them to consider
carefully the following points:
1.
Islamic courts should avoid instigating
anything that could rekindle the civil
war and show flexibility and adopt
constructive approach in all matters
relating to reconciliation process and
restoring law and order.
2.
Islamic Courts should avoid committing
strategic errors. For instance, quick
fixed policy, self overestimating,
nominating top posts to the people
included in the list of wanted people,
expanding their control very quickly,
degrading the national flag, prisoners
killed due to their tribe were few but
concerned a lot.
Unequivocally, understanding its
significance you agree with me, if those
advices and many others tendered by the
Somali peace lovers would have been
listened to; the country wouldn’t have
been in the current political limbo.
Now the
UIC seems to have been defeated at least
by now, to avoid that the country slides
into a new wave of violence and
lawlessness, many will depend on how
quick and “adequate” the government
fills the power vacuum and to adopt
strategy in order to deal with the post
UIC era? Lots of questions are flowing
into the minds of the Somali people
who’re very much concerned about their
country’s fate. Just to recall some of
those concerns/questions which I myself
consider them vital. How quick the
government re-establishes peace and
security and also resumes the badly
needed public services? How they
convince the public that they are
competent and serving for the national
interest? Is the TFG totally in charge
of the nation’s destiny? When are the
Ethiopian forces going to leave from the
country? To what extent will Ethiopia
control or influence our domestic and
natural resources in the years to come?
To what extend are being bargained away
our sovereignty and territorial
integrity? Time and history will most
certainly determine the answers of these
questions. But as a Somali citizen and
indeed concerned about my country’s
future which is in a very
dangerous-decisive crossroads, I am
obliged at least not to take the
backseat and be in silence.
At the
end of something is always the start of
something else. Perhaps this implies
clearly to the status quo of the Somalia
and its political landscape.
Nevertheless, as it stands now, two
weeks ago; the very powerful UIC is
militarily defeated. Six months under
their rule, the safety and security have
improved significantly. Moreover, the
law and order was restored and the badly
needed public services were gradually
reinstates. They kicked out the
notorious warlords and created sense of
unity, security, ownership and national
pride. Now they either abandoned their
strongholds or forced to flee, many are
worried and upset to see the return of
those infamous and defeated warlords in
their former fiefdoms. Returning those
warlords with their notorious practices
(road blocks, dividing the city into
fiefdoms, imposing people on money,
constant fighting) is indeed a matter of
great concern, which means going back to
the dubious circle experienced over the
past 15 years, unless others wise the
TFG fills the power vacuum and addresses
the public concern accordingly .
However, the burning question in most
Somalis mind is: what’s next or where do
we go from here? Taking into the account
of those concerns, the uncertainty and
the current political environment in the
country, in this short essay I will
endeavour to illustrate some possible
circumstances in which we can see
ourselves in a due course of time.
There
might be various scenarios:
1-
The defeated UIC concedes its defeat and
denounces the violence and peace
settlement is reached: In the mean time,
the government will be able to restore
law and order. In this case, Ethiopian
troops can withdraw from the country (at
least to the border for standby).
General pardons for ICs leaders &
fighters can be significant and decisive
factor to end the war; bolster peace and
reconciliation process and regain the
public trust. We all bet for this
scenario, which would have led to ending
the hostility and finally bring about
peace and stability in this trouble
country, reopens new pages of hope for
its destitute-suffering people but also
remembered president Yusuf and his PM in
the history as national heroes.
2-
UIC engage a gorilla war style and
constant regrouping and capturing areas.
This is like what we’re witnessing in
Iraq, Afghanistan. This will be the
worst scenario. It can be reviving of
the civil war; it can prompt new wave of
violence, destructions, IDP and
refugees. In such a situation, Ethiopia
will benefit the most. The governments 2
1/2 years left in its mandate will end
up with frustration, backs and froths,
gorilla war, internal disputes and thus
makes more security dependent on
Ethiopian military presence. Again,
Ethiopia will get excuses to stay in
Somalia (will leave when mission is
accomplished) and also more important to
influence or better to say to determine
the daily operations and the outcome of
the next elections in her favors.
However; it’s very essential to
comprehend that the longer Ethiopians
stay in Somalia; it will most certainly
trigger problems/ national resistance
with its far reaching effect.
Moral
and conscious deficiencies or
discrediting a genuine friend?
History
has taught us when a country has
strategic and security interest into
other country and sends its troops
whatever the reason might be, they never
leave voluntarily. When there are
historical – territorial disputes or
ideological differences like Somalia and
Ethiopia, it might be very naïve to
believe it will happen smoothly.
Just to
glance back in to the history, USSR
invaded East European countries during
the 2nd WW for security reasons. Handful
of these countries gained their
independence after Berlin Wall collapsed
in 1989. Others are forced to stay in
Russian Federation simply for strategic
considerations. Syria under the
patronage of the Arab league send its
troops to Lebanon in 1979 to bring to
the end the civil war in that country.
Under huge Western pressure Syria was
forced to leave Lebanon in 2005 after
the assassination of former Lebanese PM
Rafik Hariri 14 February same year.
US
forces set their feet first time in the
Gulf States in 1991 when they came there
to liberate Kuwait from Sadam Hussein.
U.S has since then more than 5 big
military bases through the oil rich Gulf
States under the slogan “defending from
possible threats.” Can you figure out
which countries or enemy they have to be
defended from? It’s very important to
note that none of these countries is
today in a position to demand US
government to dismantle its bases and
leave. Together Gulf States and Iraq US
has today more than 10 complex and “ever
lasting” military bases.
Just
few recollections from Africa, South
Africa invaded and occupied Namibia and
Angola under the pretext of its own
national security. Morocco took over
West Sahara from Spain and kept under
its reign until the present day.
The
long lasted civil war in Uganda and
Congo and many parts of Africa are
exacerbated by the neighboring countries
which due their own interest send their
troops and supported warring factions,
while at the same time claiming “we’re
here to help”. I would like to ask you
as a respectable reader what about
Somalia and to what extend have our
neighbors contributed or benefited from
our absurd civil war?
Have
you seen President A. Karzai of
Afghanistan wiping off the tears
trickling down from his eyes as the
result of more than 3000 civilian
killing only in 2006 under the motto
“war on Taliban and Al Qaeda”. No one
was held accountable for these massacres
nor a single compensation was paid to
the families of those love ones. Doesn’t
this indicates or obviates that
President Karzai is not fully in charge
his country’s sovereignty and national
security? Many Somalis are skeptical
whether anyone would shed tears for any
maltreatment against Somali civilians
let alone to do anything about it.
Now in
the Somali political arena especially
during the mayhem period; as you are all
know, General Omar Haji and his SNF
leaders in 1996 implored Ethiopia to
help them eradicate their arch foe enemy
of Al-Itihad Al-Islamia from Gedo
region. Ethiopia responded generously
and Itihad was ultimately annihilated.
In British Broadcasting Corporation
interview, Gen. Massalle bluntly said
“Ethiopia is our friend and we have same
enemy.” During the first days of the
war, when SNF and Ethiopian troops
gained territories I personally
interviewed Con. Abdirisak Bihi (current
MP) who came on that day to Beled-hawa
with Ethiopian helicopter from Ethiopia.
He said the same as Gen.Massalle. Couple
of months later due to internal disputes
SNF leaders who invited Ethiopia into
the region were either arrested (Hassan-Deer,
currently MP) or politically
incapacitated and forced to flee from
the region. As you are aware of, it
followed the worst and the longest
interwar ever recorded in the history
between Marehans themselves. But the
worst of all was due to the Ethiopian
meddling with the clan’s internal
affairs, constant intimidation and
divide and rule tactics the Marehan
elders and politicians couldn’t hammer
out a deal until 2004. It’s essential to
note that up to the present day,
Ethiopia does not only virtually control
the three cities near the border (i.e
Lug, Dolow and Beled-hawo), but there’s
not yet real peace and harmony among the
Marehans in Gedo. These are among others
the reasons why it can be fairly
understandable that the Somali people
are skeptical; mistrusted and rightly
opposing the Ethiopian presence in their
soil. Equally it is dangerous and
unacceptable the constant
influences-interferences of Ethiopians
in our domestic affairs.
TFG
leaders, who portray or proclaim the
opposite, are expected to address the
public concern immediately and
accordingly. Understanding the history
and analyzing the events on the ground
carefully plus the indiscreet and
outlandish revelations of Mr Husein
Aydid (2nd jan.2007) what many perceived
as “waxa uurkaaga ku jira ayaa afkaagu
xadaa” many Somalis would not surprise
to see their flag be lowered and the
Ethiopian’s be hoisted or the two
hovering equally side by side in their
soil?
For
many the Ethiopian incursions in Somalia
is unfortunate; certainly illegal and
even in breach of the last UNSC
resolution which forbids or excludes
Ethiopia and other frontline states to
participate the proposed African peace
keeper’s forces into Somalia in order to
strengthen the TFG. Ethiopia backed by
US and some Western countries claims
that she’s supporting the
internationally recognized weak TFG, but
according to many the reality is in
contrary. Ethiopia’s main aim is to wrap
off its long colonial and unfinished
dream to reach the Somali coast lines
once and for all. People who oppose the
invasions consider that TFG was used in
this process and actually unable to stop
it. A close sources to the President
A.Yusuf, confirmed me that he was in
principle ready to negotiate seriously
with the UIC and actually in favor of
forming power sharing government with
them, but was turned down by Premier
Gedi backed by the Ethiopia. In
addition; there are strong consensus
among the people that those who
legitimize or advocate by saying
Ethiopia is our “sister”, just came to
help us or not more our enemy have most
certainly moral and conscious
deficiencies. Is this a genuine concern
or are these people over reacting and
discrediting –disowning undisputable
friend? I leave the answer to you and
the history.
My
respectable reader, you will not
misinterpret this article as smear
campaign against Ethiopian and I
paranoid or opposing any possible
cooperation and peaceful coexistent
between the two nations. On contrary, as
I highlighted in my earlier article I
strongly believe that there are strong
mutual interest for both countries and
therefore advocated to stop enmity and
establish close economical cooperation.
However, no one should compromise or
bargain away whatever qui pro quo our
sovereignty, national interest and
territorial integrity.
Finally; considering the current
political status quo and the dangers the
country is descending into and necessity
to unite and reach political compromise,
I would like to appeal my fellow
citizens including the remnants of UIC
and other political dissenters to bury
their differences –put their arms down
for the sake of the country’s future. An
unjust peace is better than a just war.
Continuation of the war with its current
form or with any other form can totally
disintegrate the country with its
adverse and disastrous effect. Such a
situation, it will give Ethiopia excuses
or carte blanche to stay longer in the
country. In that sense, since it will
not serve the nation’s interest, I
dissuade driving a never ending war
enterprise which turns to country into
the Iraq or Afghanistan style.
On the
governments part; it’s very
indispensable that she comes up quickly
with a clear and holistic policy
strategy to bring back peace and
stability into the country. Committing
strategic errors in this stage can be
lethal and thus must be avoided. TFG
must take the publics concerns (i.e.
Ethiopian presence, returning warlords,
and incompetent management) serious and
address them accordingly. Furthermore,
yes it’s very challenging considering
the situation, but it’s up to the
government to regain the public trust by
addressing their concern, restoring the
public services, showing transparence
and good governance practices and
putting the national interest above
everything else. Government is indeed
under huge public scrutiny and thus its
trumpet depends on its performance. The
general amnesty offered by the TFG to
the remnants of UIC fighters was good
step towards the right direction, though
I would urge the government to widen
that crucial offer so that everyone can
make use of it. It’s very important to
remember the Nelson Mandela’s amnesty to
the white apartheid rulers in South
Africa for centuries. At the end of the
day, the government is reconciliatory
one and therefore expected to show its
mercy to its people. My honorable
President and Premier, you will indeed
harvest later what you cultivate now.
Please, don’t underestimate, the road
ahead is very long and morass/rough, the
soil is eroded, and therefore requires
you an immense skills to maneuver.
Moreover, don’t forget there are very
long waiting list as we all and the
generations to come want also to
cultivate and harvest without
difficulties.
Mahamud
Muse Tarey (ayuub10@yahoo.com)